Portfolio performance in the context of market developments
Portfolio performance is the independently confirmed revenue achieved by an optimizer through cross-market battery optimization. It is the only metric showing real BESS revenues. The data provides key insights into market trends and revenue dynamics, bringing clarity to how market conditions shape commercial outcomes. In a push for more transparency in the industry, enspired decided to make this information publicly accessible and remains the only optimizer to have done so. Results will be updated regularly as new certifications become available.
The charts below represent enspired's portfolio performance. They show revenues for grid-scale BESS projects with a 0.9-1.5-hour duration, located in Germany, optimized across all revenue streams (wholesales, FCR, and aFRR). The underlying figures are also part of the report in which they were subject to independent limited assurance by Austrian Chartered Accountant KPMG Austria GmbH.
February-March 2025
Revenue trends and market outlook
- With the dark days of February over, March brought brighter weather and with it the highest revenue of the year so far. aFRR capacity trends went up as more solar hit the grid, with the final weeks in March particularly sunny across the continent, perhaps an indicator for the summer to come.
- March is still classified as a shoulder month where influences like temperature or solar ramps are still present but not as extreme.
- Despite this trend, average portfolio performance in March 2025 outperformed March 2024 by 23%, continuing the trend enspired set last month with annual increases.
Day-ahead market
- Average prices dropped into March as renewables pushed the lower side down with the lowest price hitting €60/MWh. Peak prices were around 5% lower.
Intraday market
- Intraday prices on average were lower; however, peak prices in auctions set new highs, with spreads of over €1,500/MWh on some days as the solar ramp down aligned with drops in wind, leaving the system short.
Extreme price events
- March 6 – large imbalance in the evening as solar ramped down and wind fell short of forecast.
- March 19 – low wind and high wind saw another significant impact of the solar ramp down, not as unexpected as March 6, but impact was still felt in the markets.
Balancing markets
- March FCR prices were much higher on average than in both January and February, averaging €13.7 as the result of higher renewables increasing the marginal cost of conventional generation on the system.
- Similar to FCR, aFRR capacity down almost doubled as surplus generation put pressure on the grid. Up capacity almost halved in value, acting on the opposite drivers.
- Over the month, a split of 70% aFRR up would have yielded the highest revenue dropping from over 80% the month before.
aFRR energy products
- March saw more volatility than February, driven mostly by the demand for downward products.
- Both the start and end of the month saw the most volatility with the impact of solar (start) and wind (end).
Residual load and renewables
- The period from 18-23 of March saw both monthly highs of solar and wind, both peaking at over 45 GW and 40 GW, respectively.
- Residual load, or the measure of demand satisfied by renewable generation, was highest mid-month and lowest during the period mentioned above, where residential load trended towards 0, meaning demand was completely satisfied by renewables.
January-February 2025
Revenue trends and market outlook
- The downward trend in revenues reflects broader market conditions, as confirmed by several index providers.
- Despite this trend, February outperformed 2024, setting a solid foundation for the rest of 2025.
Day-ahead market
- While average prices were higher in February, the spread of DA prices was 10% lower, indicating reduced volatility.
Intraday market
- ID1 spreads fell 43%, following the same trend of lower volatility, despite higher average prices in February.
Extreme price events
- January 20/21 recorded the widest wholesale spreads at €780/MWh from day-ahead; the next day intraday offered just under €900/MWh.
- February’s highest spread was significantly lower with the highest day-ahead price hitting just under €370/MWh, and the spread across both markets peaking at the same level for a single cycle trade.
Balancing markets
- February FCR prices were marginally lower on average than in January 2025.
- aFRR capacity prices were higher in February than in January, largely due to increased solar generation towards the end of the month.
aFRR energy products
- January saw greater price volatility, with frequent spikes in both up and down products.
- The middle of January experienced particularly high down-prices, followed by an increase in up-prices the week after.
- February had less volatility, with the lowest fluctuations occurring during the winter half-term break (Feb 17-21).
- Notably, February 18 recorded the lowest down-price (€301/MWh) and highest up-price (€1,140/MWh).
Residual load and renewables
- Residual load (the measure of demand satisfied by renewable generation) was highest on January 6, the second highest of the year (after January 1).
- Mid-to-late January saw similar conditions, but from then on, renewables played a more consistent role.
- By February, solar peaks covered almost all demand on several days, significantly reducing system stress.
For more information on portfolio performance calculations, you can download corresponding reports. Please note that revenue certification typically occurs with a month's delay, as it includes essential ancillary service data from the TSO, which can take up to 6 weeks. The numbers presented in the portfolio performance chart are factual revenues made by enspired. Due to verification and auditing processes, approval by KPMG Austria becomes available within a month of publishing the results.
What do market movements and portfolio performance mean for your BESS?
